Analysis of the incidence and mortality trends of type 2 diabetic nephropathy in China from 1990 to 2021

Acta Universitatis Medicinalis Anhui 2026, 01, v.61 176-182     font:big middle small

Fund programs: National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 82104748); Science and Technology Re- search Project of Henan Province(No. 242102311282);Cultivation Project of Henan University of Chinese Medi- cine(No. MP2024-37)

Authors:Dou Xuewei,Cui Wenfei,Niu Ling,Yin Binglei,Wang Jinjin

Keywords:type 2 diabetic kidney disease; burden of disease; Joinpoint regression model; age-period-cohort model; incidence; mortality;

DOI:10.19405/j.cnki.issn1000-1492.2026.01.027

〔Abstract〕 Objective To analyze the long-term trend of incidence and mortality of type 2 diabetic kidney disease(DKD) in China from 1990 to 2021.Methods The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the average an‑nual percentage change(AAPC) of standardized incidence rate and standardized mortality rate, and the ageperiod-cohort(APC) model was constructed to analyze the longitudinal age change, period and cohort effect risk ra‑tio(RR).Results From 1990 to 2021, the standardized incidence rate of type 2 DKD in males and females showed an overall upward trend, with AAPC of 0. 08% and 0. 36%, respectively. The age-standardized mortality rate of the total population and female showed a downward trend, with AAPC of-0. 61% and-1. 03%, respec‑tively. However, there was no significant difference in males. APC model showed that the age effect existed: the peak age was 75-79 years old, the mortality rate of females increased, and the mortality rate of males decreased af‑ter 80-84 years old. For the effect of time period, the risk of type 2 DKD incidence in females in 2017—2021 was 1. 05 times that in 2002—2006, and the risk of death in males and females in 2017—2021 was 0. 84 and 0. 71 times that in 2002—2006, respectively. For cohort effects, the highest risk of disease was seen in men and women born in 1967—1971, and the highest risk of death was seen in men born in 1952—1956 and women born in 1912—1916.Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, the standardized incidence rate of type 2 DKD in China shows an upward trend, and the standardized mortality rate shows a downward trend. It is necessary to strengthen the health behav‑ior publicity and education of type 2 DKD, and actively carry out early screening to reduce the disease burden.